patterns of operatiom

The Strategic Issues Research Institute

Benjamin C. Works, Executive Director
--Speak the Truth and Shame the Devil--
Strategic Issues Today

A formatted report may be viewed at: http://www.siri-us.com/issues.html

SIT 04-23-26, March 26, 2004

Iraq and Al Qaeda: Patterns of Terrorist Operations

Therefore, I say, `know the enemy and know yourself;'

in a hundred battles you will never be in peril.

- Sun Tzu, The Art of War, Chapter III

A vital part of knowing the enemy is knowing his symbology and his patterns of attacks over time.
This report will describe five primary patterns of attack: three of which are fairly obvious by now and two a bit more subtle.

Al Qaeda cells tend to mount their signature attacks against fixed targets while a crescent moon is visible.
Alternatively, they also mount attacks where there is a significant numerological symbology, such as this
month’s attacks on Spanish commuter trains on the 911th day after 9/11/2002.
A third preference is to strike on Western secular and religious holidays, especially when the bonus of a crescent moon
features during the holiday. Improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against US convoys are particularly likely on Saturdays,
the first day of the Muslim business week and the day after Friday prayers –the Islamic Sabbath.
Al Qaeda-Sunni fundamentalists like to attack Shiite congregations after Friday prayers as they leave their mosques,
and during the festival of Ashura, as happened last month. SIRIUS is fortunate to have been shown current
Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) figures on attacks since August, 2003 and there are clear spikes in activity during
both Islamic and Western holidays. Weekly levels of security incidents from all forms of violence have been running
at a baseline of about 150 events per week since Saddam’s capture in mid-December, but there was a spike to over
300 events during Ramadan in early November, with clear spikes during Christmas-New Year, Eid-al Adha/Hajj and
during the Shiite festival of Ashura. In that baseline of attacks, one encounters everything from blood feud and
assassination of Baathist officials to strikes against targets of opportunity –coalition forces, Iraqi Security forces and
officials of the Interim Iraqi government, as well as sabotage against infrastructure. Among the casualties have been
over 350 American soldiers. Some 350 Iraqi security officers have also been killed in the post-Saddam restoration
of government.

The five above-cited patterns are good reasons to go on a heightened state of alert –to rise to “Code Red” in some
instances, where “chatter” among Islamic fundamentalists increases or other corroborating indicators are on the rise.

One retired Marine officer and Fellow of the Institute asked if SIRIUS should broadcast this sensitive information about
attack patterns widely. Yes, because Al Qaeda and its clone groups are not likely to change their pattern. Their collection
of photos of moons over smoldering rubble are a powerful recruiting tool for them, while also serving as a leering “screw you”
message to their enemy, the United States, and its allies. Thus, it is important to get the word out to our commanders and
troops in the field as well as to homeland security and public safety authorities throughout the civilized world. Al Qaeda is
not going to change to full moon attacks because of these writings and the Wahabists are not going to let up on Shiites and
Christians.

The Crescent Moon

There was an odd little news report on the cable channels right around New Year’s Day: security authorities were keeping
an eye out for young men with Almanacs. The cable channels mostly thought these were “World Almanacs” though one
showed a picture of a “Farmer’s Almanac.” And in fact, the terrorists are less interested in general information and keenly
interested in the phase of the moon and its rise and set times, which are found in the monthly charts of any of the
several Farmer’s Almanacs in circulation.

Islam operates on the lunar calendar and months begin on the new moon. A crescent moon is a powerful symbol in Islam
and features on the flags of several Muslim states.

In a report issued Nov 18, 2002, SIRIUS explored a number of attacks launched by Al Qaeda and found that even
before 9/11/02, they had begun to mount their attacks while a crescent moon was visible over the smoldering rubble
of their targets and this has continued to be the primary attack pattern, including the Bali attacks and the attack on the
UN compound in Iraq. To view that report see:

http://www.siri-us.com/backissues/2002/SIT-02-11-18TerrorEvents.rtf

The moon is still in crescent through March 27 but is waxing towards a full moon on April 5th with a return to crescent
around April 12-26. And of course, attacks surged in Iraq after the moon turned crescent on March 14-15 as we
approached the first anniversary of Iraqi Freedom. This current phase is of particular significance since five planets
are visible in proximity to the crescent moon as demonstrated by an internet exhibit:

http://www.space.com/php/multimedia/imagedisplay/img_display.php?pic=040305_planets_march27_02.jpg&cap=
SKY%20MAP%20March%2027:%20The%20five%20visible%20planets%20as%20
of%206:30%20p.m.%20from%20mid-northern%20latitudes.

It is also noteworthy that on Wednesday, March 24, four US embassies in Muslim states were temporarily closed,
three due to credible threats in the “chatter” among Muslim fundamentalists and one due to a false report of a bomb
explosion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The other closings were in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Bahrain. Demonstrations against
the Israeli government’s assassination of Hamas cleric Ahmed Yassin was a contributing factor in Bahrain, and other
street demonstrations occurred in Cairo and other cities during the week.

Saturdays and IEDs

An analyst affiliated with an internet newsgroup, “MILINET” first observed that IED attacks were most frequent on
Saturdays and observed that it was the first day of their business week. Alas, SIRIUS was in the midst of profound
computer glitching at the time and lost the analyst’s note and identity. But the pattern has continued right through last
Saturday and it would be interesting to test those attack data against the crescent moon phases, as well.

In closing, Tim Meier of Boston, an astute young Fellow of SIRIUS, noted a detail in the crash of the flight in Pennsylvania,
on 9/11/2002. A passenger reported that when the terrorists stood up to start the operation, they had tied red bandannas
around their heads. That was a symbolic reference to the 12th century cult of Assassins loyal to the Old Man of the
Mountains. Assassins commonly wore red turbans and red boots, so keep an eye peeled for those details, as well.

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